How do I use the information on the forecast page?
The forecast (short-term) information can be used to determine if aurora can be seen in your location within the next 30 - 60 mins.The OVATION model shows the predicted intensity and location of aurora oval for the time shown at the top of the map. If the oval (green or yellow or red depending on the strength) is above your location, you have a good probability of viewing aurora, provided dark clear skies.
The numbers on the Kp clock or the table shows predicted Kp index values within the next one hour. The strength of aurora is represented by Kp value. The higher the number, stronger the aurora.
I have seen aurora in Fargo, ND [46.8772,-96.7898] many times when Kp was < 4. So, just don't go by the numbers. Look at the ovation oval, if it is above your location, you can see aurora even if the Kp is lower. Before heading out, check weather and cloud cover and moon phase. You need clear skies to see northern lights. Bright moon light will wash off weaker auroras.What are Kp values?
The Kp index, short name for planetary K-index, is a value representing the magnitude of geomagnetic activity, thereby aurora activity on a 0-9 scale. The higher the number, better the chances of seeing aurora.See the following kp map to know the approximate Kp value at which aurora may be visible in your location.
Use this map as general guidelines. As mentioned earlier, just don't go by the numbers, look at the ovation model, if it is above your location, you can see aurora even if the Kp is lower than the Kp indicated in the map above.